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We now have President-elect Trump and fear, uncertainty, protest, hate, gloating, and even humility have been observed in the last two days. Truth is, no one, including his most rabid supporters, really knows what to expect. Whatever policy prescriptions he presented during the campaign were mostly without detail. Some were obviously unrealistic- tax cuts that would completely blow up the Federal budget, for one. His approach was so scattershot that at different times he presented opposing versions of the same policy. So, trying to predict the agenda a President Trump will advance is a problematic exercise. However, fortified with the thought that, however dangerous some think the new President will be for the health of the Republic, watching him attempt to fit his over-inflated ego into the most demanding job in the world will be a fascinating spectacle, and so I will venture some guesses at what the near future holds for us all, deplorables and un-deplorables alike.

• We will never see the tax returns. That ship has sailed.
• He will never place his businesses into a blind trust as is the custom for office holders with business interests. He has stated that his children will run them without his involvement. However, he has business interests in 22 countries, which will raise questions when he negotiates with any of them: Is he acting as Head of State, or as an agent of Trump Enterprises?
• Trump will be eager to make a big splash coming out of the gate. For all of his talk about repealing the Affordable Care Act- which the Republican Congress will gleefully do- my bet is that an infrastructure package may well be his first move. One, it is fiscal stimulus and will create jobs. Two, the Democrats will line up behind him on it. (Ironic that Obama could not get the Republican Congress to move on his infrastructure proposal- or any infrastructure proposal- because they did not want to award him any legislative victories.) This move is right in his wheelhouse, since he knows about building things and likes ribbon-cutting ceremonies. Problem: The Congress will hold out for something they want in order to fund these projects. Look for some conservative Holy Grail, such as repealing the ACS.
• Per the above, Mike Pence will be given a lot of freedom to deal with Congress and that is where the opportunity for the extremism of the Right to end up on the Trump agenda exists. Pence is a religious zealot, a values conservative. It is conceivable that Trump will dispatch him to negotiate when Trump has to give Congress something to get a particular item passed. The ACA is an obvious target, but don’t discount gay marriage, LGBT rights or voting rights. It is not inconceivable that the Senate will provide its own list of acceptable nominees for the Supreme Court when that time comes.
• As a dealmaker, Trump will dangle the threat of cooperating with Democrats as a way to keep recalcitrant Senators and Congressmen in line. He reportedly has a good relationship with Senator Chuck Schumer, the presumptive Democratic leader.
• President Trump will nominate an arch conservative in the Scalia mold to fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court. There is a possibility that, if MItch McConnell leaves the current rules in place, that Senate Democrats will filibuster the nominee. Republican Senators who stated before the election that they were prepared to block a President Clinton’s nominee for the duration of her term may rue ever uttering those words out loud.
• Despite their intentions, President Trump and the Republican Congress will find repealing the ACA to be a morass. It has the possibility of a setback which, in Napoleonic terms, would be more akin to the failed invasion of Russia than Waterloo. I would think that a one-shot repeal is not feasible, so it would have to be unwound piece by piece. While the news reports of premium increases have contributed to the supposed unpopularity of the law, it will only be when it is repealed and the insurance companies let loose upon the resulting smaller markets that we will get a clearer picture of the public’s attitudes.
• Mr. Trump campaigned on bringing jobs back to those regions impacted by globalization. How he intends to do this is unclear. While no longer the top manufacturing nation in the world (we are 2nd behind China), output as measured by the sector’s revenue has has increased steadily during the Obama years. Conversely, the number of manufacturing jobs has decreased. So, factory workers cannot look forward to an industrial renaissance. The question remains- where do the jobs come from? Even if the Republicans somehow coerce corporations into reversing their offshore moves, manufacturing will employ a fraction of the numbers they did in the past and many of these jobs will require different, technology-based skills than previously. Infrastructure spending will create its own employment bubble, since construction jobs have a limited term. Thus, a real possibility exists that the resentment of the shrinking white middle class will be directed at Trump and the Republican Congress.
• The hypothetical situation described above would have dire consequences for a GOP with a dismal record of governance over the last three decades. Faced with continuing economic hardship among those who were his most enthusiastic supporters, it may very well be Trump’s inclination to use the fiscal tools of the Federal government to provide an economic safety net. This would be anathema to the Congressional Republicans and the schism in the party would be opened up once more.
• Trump will face a foreign policy challenge early on. While it may be facile to say it will come at the hands of the Russians, there are other actors who would have an interest in finding out the extent to which he will back the US out of its various global commitments. It may not be as dramatic as a terrorist attack, but it will be an event that puts stress on a new administration with a rookie quarterback. It is an NFL tactic: blitz the rookie to see if he can handle it.

The unanswered question is how does an independent President Trump, more loyal to his own team than to the Republican Party as a whole, deal with a Republican Congress eager to enact an extreme agenda. My own opinion is that if Trump feels he needs to pushback on the Congress, he will revisit his campaign and barnstorm the country to whip up popular support for whatever policy he is pursuing. In the end, the new President may have a better partner in the Senate Democrats than in most of the Congressional Republicans.