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Last month I offered my thoughts on why I believe we are heading toward a recession. I am not an economist, but I try to keep up with macroeconomic ideas and their relationship to the “real” economy. What is apparent to me is, despite business-friendly tax cuts and reduction in government regulation, the Trump Administration and its collaborators in Congress have mismanaged fiscal policy so that an adjustment is inevitable. Call it the Mother of All Bubbles.

Given these ruminations, I was glad to be joined by some of observers of note. This week, the New York Times editorial page raised much the same issues as I had- the underwhelming effect of the tax bill on raising wages in a tight labor market, the negative fallout from Trump’s tariff orgy, and the ominous signs of an impending inversion of the yield curve.  Summing up, the Times editorial board warned  “Mr. President, while you like to take credit for positive economic trends that are well beyond your control, you will own the downside, too.”

The same day, in an op-ed in the Washington Post, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers listed reasons why we are heading to an inevitable downturn. He points out that while we are meeting growth projections, “other parts of the world — including China, Europe and Japan — exceeded expectations.” Foreign investment in the US had declined since Trump took office. Inflation has not exploded in spite of low unemployment because businesses have managed to keep labor costs down while pocketing productivity gains. And there is the potential that stimulative fiscal policies such as the tax cuts will collide with foreign retaliation for Trump trade policies. Summers makes the point that since “there is limited room for monetary policy, the country will not be in a position to respond strongly if a downturn comes.”

Summers concludes with a dire prediction: “This is all quite dangerous. The president has taken credit for far more economic success than he deserves. He will disproportionately be blamed when the downturn comes. What follows will be a test of our democracy.”

I will add my own words of caution: We are all living on the credit card. The Federal government's budget deficit has climbed to one trillion dollars. More worrisome is the steady increase in consumer credit liability. The Federal Reserve reports “consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4-1/2 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 3 percent.”

What is needed to survive a severe economic event? Political will and political courage would be a good place to start, and leadership. The question is will our democracy, in Lawrence Summers’ terms, meet this test.