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If you suspect the stars are aligned so as to portend an upcoming economic downturn, recall what one old-time politician told another: “The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, but in ourselves…” Forget Adam Smith’s “invisible hand”- it will be Donald Trump’s grubby little hands on the wheel when we drive into the ditch. The lessons of 2008 have faded in the rear-view mirror and we’re steering towards an avoidable crash. Despite the current health of the economy- booming bull market in stocks, low unemployment- there is trouble ahead.

Ordinary Americans are already seeing the signs in the rising cost of gasoline, the upward tick in consumer prices, and little or no increase in wages. The Dow has dropped ten-percent since January and consumer confidence is trending slightly downward. The Federal Reserve has begun upping its benchmark interest rate, raising borrowing costs for credit cards, auto financing, mortgages, and other loans. With wages flat, the effect is to reduce the purchasing power of many consumers.

The yield curve, a bit of financial esoterica that measures the difference between interest rates on short- and long-term government bonds, is exhibiting a “flattening” trend. In a healthy economy, rates are higher on longer-term issues, creating a difference with short-term rates. But long-term yields have not been rising and the Fed's tightening policies are pushing short-term rates higher, reducing the rate delta. If long-term rates dip below short-term, the curve will have “inverted”. Over the past 60 years, an inverted yield curve has preceded each and every recession.

It would not be incorrect to say Donald Trump’s family wasted their money on his Wharton education. He has no grasp of basic macroeconomic principles. His career as a real estate huckster convinced him that business was all about “deals” (a favorite word of his) so he lacks a detailed understanding of the federal government’s role in the economy. The results are dumbed-down policies based on two T’s- tariffs and taxes.

Reviving 19th Century trade policies, Trump has abandoned our multilateral trade agreements with the promise he can make better “deals”. By enacting tariffs on our largest trading partners, he has taken us across the Rubicon into trade war territory. There will be no winners. Expect higher consumer prices and lost jobs as businesses scale back production. Predictions of the number of workers who may lose jobs range into the hundreds of thousands.

This wrong-headed approach to trade exacerbates the effects of the GOP tax cuts. A windfall for the wealthy and corporations, the impact on wages has been negligible even with low unemployment. Corporations have engaged in an orgy of stock-buybacks and dividend pay-outs while directing a minuscule amount of their tax savings to increased wages or bonuses. The Republican hope to use the tax cuts as a campaign issue this fall has been replaced by silence.

Touching all bases,Trump extended his ignorance of economics to his restrictive immigration policies. Immigrants- both legal and illegal- contribute to the economy: they purchase goods and services, pay taxes, and populate the labor force. Many economists see immigrants as necessary to labor force growth, especially in the current tight labor market. And to complete the Trumpanomic agenda, add increased healthcare costs due to the gutting of the ACA.

When Trump said, “Only I can do it,” guess he was referring to making unforced errors. At least on that point, he wasn’t lying.