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As if in rebuttal to my previous post (“Condemned to Repeat”), the next day an op-ed by Hassan Hassan of the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy appeared in the New York Times. In it, the author notes- as I and many others also have- the shift in tactics by the Islamic State to more terror attacks as a response to the reversals suffered on the battlefield at the hands of the US-backed coalition. Unlike the majority of other commentators, Hassan does not subscribe to the theory that the increase in suicide bombings is a “sign of desperation and weakness.”  His thesis is that ISIS is adapting to  conditions and will survive:

"The threat is not going away. The group’s ultimate goal remains unchanged: control of the Muslim world. The apocalyptic idealists who form the Islamic State’s core believe that they are ordained by God to accomplish this. And they will change their tactics as often as they need to in order to get closer to that goal, whether that means increasing the number of suicide bombers or shifting the front lines in Syria."

As with most fanaticism, these idealistic goals are not matched by a sober assessment of the realities. Despite their global aspirations, Hassan admits “a majority of the group’s rank and file and leadership are still Iraqis and Syrians.”  He further admits that the existence of ISIS is rooted in “the political, social and sectarian issues in the countries [Iraq and Syria], issues that “still exist. Some may even be worsening. The government in Baghdad continues to use Shiite militias to fight in Sunni areas, pushing some Iraqis into the Islamic State’s waiting arms, or at least encouraging people to view the group as their sole defender.”

Only the most superficial analysis would conclude that ISIS is responsible for the majority of terrorist acts in the world. The Russians have had problems with Chechen terrorists for decades; the Turks with Kurds, the Indians with Kashmiri separatists. What makes the Islamic State unique is its adherence to basic tenets of Western consumer capitalism, especially branding and marketing. ISIS has mastered social media as a communication tool. Whenever possible, the group takes credit for acts in which it may have played no direct role other than inspiration. It recruiting efforts are directed worldwide, including in the West.

Violence is a tangible act. In the service of politics, it must produce tangible results to have significance. If not, it is reduced to senseless slaughter with the potential to induce fear… Perhaps. Resist fear and ISIS’ terror falls far short of its pretensions of controlling global Islam.

In 2014, about as many people died worldwide from terrorism as died in the United States alone from automobile accidents.* If you are afraid of terrorists, I guess you should not get into a car.

Looking at terrorism another way, how many suicide explosive devices would it take to equal the power of either of the atom bombs dropped on Japan seventy-one years ago?

* Sources: http://www.statista.com/statistics/202871/number-of-fatalities-by-terrorist-attacks-worldwide/

                         http://www.iihs.org/iihs/topics/t/general-statistics/fatalityfacts/state-by-state-overview