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The failure of the Republican-controlled House to pass Speaker Paul Ryan’s American Health Care Act last week was extraordinary in one way: In lobbying for the bill’s passage, and even going so far as threatening recalcitrant House members who announced their opposition, President Trump put his self-proclaimed skill as a deal-closer on the line. The bill died, not with a crashing boom, but with a reverberating whimper as Ryan, knowing he did not have the votes for passage, did not permit it to come to the floor for a vote. This left Trump, who like to describe himself as a “winner”, on the losing side in his first major legislative venture.*

And the future may be worse.

The health care debacle shines a very bright light on the problems of governance facing the Administration. Government is not business- certainly, not the real estate business- and whatever skills Mr. Trump possesses will not be of service to him when he must forge coherent policy and unify a fractious Republican Party. After voting over fifty times during the Obama Administration to repeal the Affordable Care Act, the best the GOP brain trust could muster was a bill so deeply flawed it was attacked from both the left and the right. Trump, thirsting for a win to show that he was accomplishing something- anything- nonetheless waded into the fight. He seemed oblivious to the fact he was betting on a three-legged horse, and relied on his personality to influence the outcome. He and his team exhibited an inability to read the political tea leaves and probably emboldened those who would oppose him in the future.

True to his personal history,Trump attempted to deflect responsibility for the bill’s failure (he publicly blamed the minority Democrats). His inability to accept and learn from failure, while providing us the demi-comedy of his buffoonish antics, will prove to be a tragic flaw. In not conceding an obvious defeat, Trump resembles the Black Knight in the movie, Monty Python and the Holy Grail, a loser.

At the same time, the more consequential issue is the investigation into alleged ties between the Trump campaign and Russia. This threatens the Trump team with exposure to legal as well as political problems. The President’s ongoing difficulty with the various Executive Orders he issued to restrict immigration- each has been stayed by the courts- contributes to the sense that this is a Presidency lacking in governing competence. 

And, now true to form, Trump is hoping to provide a distraction by turning to tax reform. As a Catherine Rampell points out, this is an even more fraught issue than health care. There is an even greater diversity of special interests invested in the details of the tax code, and herding the kittens towards some consensus on reform will be daunting.

As quickly as it has begun, it is not difficult to see that the Trump era may be heading towards an inevitable crash-and-burn. With historically low approval ratings, a sharply divided Republican Party, and having won election with a minority of the popular vote, it would take a President with the stature and skill of Abraham Lincoln to provide the leadership the nation requires.

Difficult to see how Mr. Trump fits that description.

*Some insights on this from The New Yorker’s writers.