1hundredsixty8

Oh, boy- a big day leading us into The Big Weekend.

This morning's jobs reports shows continued but modest growth in private-sector employment.  While the unemployment rate ticked up, the big news on the jobs front was the upward revision of the November and December figures, meaning that the economy created more jobs than first reported.  The take-away may be that we are in a slow-but-steady period of economic growth if it were not for...

The prelimiinary GDP report for the 4th Quarter of 2012 Wednesday that showed a 0.1% decline in the annual rate. Is our fragile recovery getting even weaker? A look inside the numbers indicates that the private sector is still growing: It was the decline in government spending- specifically, defense spending- that put the hit on economic growth.  One of the points I raised in my previous post on the National Debt was...

The role of the government's deficit spending in the overall economy. In their incessant bleating about debt and deficits, our politicians have ignored the basic fact that government spending creates demand  and, when both interest rates and inflation are at non-threatening levels, leads to a net positive in GDP. Is there an inTrade market on the possibility our elected officials will eventually start talking about employment? 

(For another insight into the Debt-Deficit, check out Neil Irwin's post in yesterday's Wonkblog.)

Onto the Big Game. As I have previously mentioned, I have avoided all media this week, so my own analysis is based purely on watching the Ravens and 49er's on TV. I think these are very two well-matched teams: Good defenses, solid running games, effective receivers, strong-armed QB's. Kaepernick is obviously a threat as a runner, a factor the Ravens do not possess. Torrey Smith has emerged as a big-play receiver during Baltimore's playoff run and bears watching. Vernon Davis, the Niners' TE,  re-surfaced as a play maker against Atlanta.  

Here's my key to the game: Since both QB's handle the blitz effectively, I would watch the matchup between the offensive and defensive lines in the passing game: Whichever team can pressure the passer without the blitz will gain the edge.

I say it is a pick'em. For another view, my friend Michael offers this analysis:

"Teams with a top 2 defense are 16-5 in Superbowl history and have won their 

last 11. The 49er's also were best in the league with the lowest completion % 

against passes traveling 20yds or more so the numbers all favor the 49ers but 

the Ray Lewis-led, emotionally-supercharged Ravens are a worthy foe. Whoever 

has the most rushing yards will impose their will in the 4th quarterand prevail in 

a squeaker..." 

Make sure you have the beer and pretzels at the ready.