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Last month in this space, I discussed the potential implosion of the Republican Party as a result of Donald Trump becoming its presumptive nominee for President and pondered possible consequences. My hypothesis is that the fracturing of the GOP may bring about an end of the two-party system which has dominated our politics from the beginning of the Republic. It is apparent that the coalitions essential to the electoral success of both parties are approaching their respective breaking points. While the media has busied itself with various versions of the Trump/party unity/possible third party narrative, much less attention has been paid to the prospect of the Democrats having to deal with comparable schisms. As I noted previously, Bernie Sanders’ campaign has revealed a fault line between centrist Dems and a younger, more progressive cohort. And this is only one dynamic roiling the Democratic coalition.

In today’s New York Times, Jonathan Martin reports on serious differences between “two of the Democratic Party’s most loyal constituencies, labor and environmentalists.”  The specific issue is an effort to raise money for a get-out-the-vote effort that was announced by Tom Steyer, a billionaire and staunch environmentalist, and segments of organized labor. Steyer’s views are seen an obstacle to the creation of construction jobs and are thus opposed by several unions representing construction workers.  The touchstone issue was Steyer’s opposition to the Keystone pipeline, the building of which was supported by the construction unions. Laid bare is the fault line between traditional labor unions and unions representing teachers, civil servants and service industry workers.

It would not be surprising if some of the union rank-and-file supported Mr. Trump in this fall’s election. This is a demographic that seems very susceptible to his populist anti-trade, anti-immigrant rhetoric. It also seems likely that, given Mr. Trump’s unfavorability (as measured in current polls), the other components of the Democratic coalition will remain united to oppose his election. The long-range trend, however, may well be a further weakening of the Democrats as a party.

In this post-Citizens United era, money dominates our politics and the traditional parties are being replaced by donor networks and Super-PACs. We could see a four-party race as soon as 2028 or 2032. As effective governance becomes more and more elusive, the replacement of electoral coalitions by governing coalitions would seem to be a postive development.