1hundredsixty8

It's 41 degrees here on Long Island, going down into the 20's tonight, so no matter what the calendar tells us, that feeling of awakening that comes with advent of Spring would seem to be a little ways off. That said, I do perceive signs of other types of flowering.

Immigration, as fraught a political issue as any, is taking root as a bipartisan cause. Yesterday, Senator Rand Paul, in calling for a path to citizenship as a component of comprehensive reform, declared that we "won't be deporting 12 million people." There are reports a secret meetings of House members of both parties to develop a bipartisan approach. Of course, one may be excused for questioning the true motivation of Republicans in joining this effort. Certainly, their low level of support among Hispanic voters is part of the calculus. Regardless of how they get there, it could very well be that both parties will succeed in getting some form of immigration reform into law.

Another interesting development is highlighted in Peter Orszag's article in today's Bloomberg View in which he discusses the slowdown in the rate of Medicare cost increases. Short version: The rate of growth has slowed in the last five years, and less than 20% of the reduction is attributable to the recession. Long term, while official projections have shown that the cost of Medicare as a percentage of GDP will nearly double by 2085, the recent trend would indicate that the percentage in 72 years would only be slightly higher than the current 3.7. 

March 27 marks the expiration of the current Continuing Resolution, the temporary appropriations bill Congress uses to fund the operations of the Federal government in the absence of a real budget passed through by both Houses in what is known as "regular order." If another CR is not passed, the government will basically shutdown (except for essential operations). Given the fact that, for the first time in years, the Senate has a budget proceeding in regular order, and it is therefore likely that both Houses will pass budget bills, it would seem that a short-term CR will be put into place while the competing budgets are reconciled by conference committee.

So, what comes first, the arrival of real Spring weather, or fiscal resolution in Congress?